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JOBS FALL SHORT Delayed by the shutdown, the September Employment data was released on Tuesday. Against a consensus forecast of 180K, the economy added just 148K jobs. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped from 7.3% to 7.2%, the lowest level since November 2008. The decline was mixed news, though, since it was due to both job gains and to people who left the labor force, meaning that they stopped trying to find a job. Bottom line, the results were weaker than what Fed officials would like to see. Between the ongoing uncertainty about future fiscal policy and the slow pace of improvement in the labor market, investors now expect that the Fed will not begin to taper until at least the March Fed meeting. While the labor market data disappointed investors, the housing market continued to perform well. September Existing Home Sales were just slightly down from the four-year high reached in August, and they were 11% higher than one year ago. Total inventory of existing homes available for sale was unchanged at a five-month supply. Since the Existing Home Sales data is produced by the National Association of Realtors, it was unaffected by the government shutdown. The New Home Sales report, which is produced by the government, is delayed.
WEEK AHEAD |
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Posts Tagged ‘Government Shutdown’
Mortgage Market News
October 4, 2013| Compliments of: | |||
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NO BUDGET DEAL
Congress failed to reach a budget deal for the new fiscal year, causing a partial government shutdown for the first time in 17 years. The impact on mortgage rates was surprisingly small, though. The reduced number of economic reports released this week also caused little reaction. Mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.
While the shutdown has caused disruptions in the mortgage origination process, the effect on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices, and therefore mortgage rates, has been minor. With respect to the shutdown, bond market investors adopted a wait and see attitude. The much more significant issue is the debt ceiling. According to the Treasury, the government will reach its borrowing limit around October 17. If Congress does not raise the limit, there is a risk that the government technically will default on its obligations. The results of this unprecedented event could be severe for the economy and financial markets. At this point, though, few investors believe that Congress would actually allow the US to default.
One consequence of the shutdown is that economic reports produced by government agencies are not being released. The first Friday of each month is usually notable for the reaction to the Employment report, but this month’s data has been delayed. Investors were forced to adjust their outlooks based on the less significant labor market data which did come out during the week, including the ADP forecast and Jobless Claims. These reports showed little change from recent readings, though, and had little impact.
ALSO NOTABLE
| • | ISM Manufacturing rose to the highest level since April 2011 |
| • | The Treasury will auction $64 billion in securities next week |
| • | The European Central Bank made no change in rates |
| • | Euro zone unemployment remained near record levels of 12% |
WEEK AHEAD
Investors will continue to follow the budget and debt ceiling discussions next week. If the shutdown is not resolved, most of the economic reports scheduled for next week will be postponed, including Friday’s Retail Sales and Producer Price index data. Unaffected by the shutdown, the Minutes from the September 18 Fed Meeting will be released on Wednesday. These detailed Minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials. In addition, Treasury auctions are scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
How the Government Shutdown will Effect Financing
October 2, 2013How the Government Shutdown will Effect Financing
Most Government Sponsored Entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and VA are operating as normal and continue business as usual. FHA is staffed with limited personnel and trying not to delay closings or have their business deterred but I would watch FHA loans and applications very closely(like you weren’t already) to make sure there is no funny business.
The big challenge at the moment for all in the industry is the IRS having its doors closed. On nearly every mortgage loan application borrowers are required to complete the IRS Transcript request form called the 4506-T. This form is sent by the lender to the IRS and they provide the lender with tax transcripts verifying income from tax returns for the previous years requested. This is how the lenders quantify borrowers W-2’s, 1040’s, business income and just about every other possible income from credible tax returns or reported income. The IRS will likely not be processing any 4506-T requests during this shutdown. Depending on the duration of the shutdown, requests may be delayed and there may be a backlog of requests that the IRS will need to process when they do re-open. Additionally the Social Security verifications from the Social Security Administration are not available.
In the meantime, EverBank’s policy for this is if tax returns were prepared by a third party, our Processor and/or Underwriter must independently validate the existence of the third party via an internet search and/or obtain verification of the CPA license. If the returns were prepared by an entity such as H&R Block, the office location should be verified. In general EverBank will not suspend loan closings due to the absence of 4506-T validation, however Underwriters still have the responsibility to conduct proper due diligence of the income documentation provided in loan files. Any red flags need to be addressed as thoroughly as possible without the assistance of the tax return transcripts at this time. Significant red flags in a loan file that cannot be addressed or cleared may warrant postponing a closing until a tax return transcript can be obtained from the IRS.
In general lenders are hopeful mortgage loans will not be delayed and optimistic the shutdown will not last more than a few weeks. Origination companies, correspondent banks, and warehouse lenders may react differently as they access the risks associated with an extended shutdown. If it does last more than a month we may be in for some rocky times on the mortgage side, for now let’s go with business as usual and be mindful when entering contract with an FHA buyer.
Hope this information is helpful and re-assuring.
Thanks, Patrick
Patrick Gardner
Mortgage Loan Officer
Office: 415.423.1424
Cell: 510.599.8499
Fax: 415.477.2146
patrick.gardner@everbank.com
Everbank.com/pgardner
NMLS ID: 378888
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East Bay Real Estate: Caldecott Properties 