Rates at 2014 Lows – Mortgage Time

MORTGAGE TIME Mortgage Market News for the week of Jan. 10, 2014

Compliments of: Patrick Gardner Mortgage Loan Officer NMLS ID: 378888 415-423-1424 Email me Visit my website   JOB GAINS FALL SHORT Investors were focused on the strength of the labor market this week. A strong reading for job gains in Wednesday’s ADP report caused mortgage rates to move a little higher. The ADP data turned out to be a poor indicator for Friday’s weaker than expected Employment report, however, and mortgage rates ended the week lower. Against a consensus forecast of 200K, the economy added just 74K jobs in November. This was the smallest monthly increase in jobs since January 2011. Given that several other labor market indicators showed greater strength in December, many investors were skeptical about how accurately the data reflects the strength of the labor market. For one thing, bad weather likely was a factor in the shortfall, as the construction sector was particularly weak. Upward revisions to the November data also partly offset the December results, leaving average gains of about 160K over the last two months. Bottom line, though, the report fell short of expectations, causing mortgage rates to move lower after the news. In another twist, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly declined from 7.0% to 6.7%, the lowest level since October 2008. Looking below the surface, reported job gains accounted for just 0.1% of the decline, while a large group of people leaving the labor force was responsible for the remaining 0.2% decline. While the headline Employment report is based on data collected from just large employers, the Unemployment Rate is derived from a separate survey of individual households. According to this survey, there were job gains of about 150K in December, while roughly 350K people were no longer seeking work and thus were removed from the labor force. Since the Unemployment Rate is simply the number people in the labor force seeking work divided by the total labor force, it counts equally whether a person stops seeking work by finding a job, giving up on the job search, or retiring. ALSO NOTABLE • The Trade Deficit declined to the lowest level since October 2009 • The European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates • Mel Watt was sworn in for a five-year term as Director of the FHFA • Janet Yellen was confirmed to be the next Chair of the Fed WEEK AHEAD The most significant economic data next week will be the Retail Sales data and the monthly inflation reports. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity and will be released on Tuesday. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Thursday. CPI looks at the price change for finished goods which are sold to consumers. Housing Starts and Industrial Production will come out on Friday. Import Prices, Philly Fed, Empire State, Consumer Sentiment, and the Fed’s Beige Book will round out a busy schedule.

Calling All First Time Home Buyers!

For all our first time home buyers out there, you SHOULD be aware of the following federal program that will make buying your first home much more affordable.

It is called the MCC (Alameda County Mortgage Credit Certificate). You can find out about the details of this program at the website of Alameda County (http://www.acgov.org/cda/mcc_program/).

I can explain in more detail how that would affect the purchase process. Just come and see me in my office at Caldecott Properties, 5251 Broad way, Oakland, CA 94618.

Looking forward to assisting you then.

Antoine E. Pirson, MBA
Broker and Investment Advisor
Caldecott Properties
Office: (510) 594 2400
www.investmentpropertyfirst.com
 fax:(510) 594 2424