Posts Tagged ‘exisiting home sales’

not always early, but ALWAYS on time….MORTGAGE TIME!

March 10, 2014
MORTGAGE TIME
Mortgage Market News for the week of March 7, 2014
Compliments of:
Patrick Gardner
Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS ID: 378888
415-423-1424
Email me
Visit my website

 


JOBS DATA AND UKRAINE
It was a volatile week in mortgage markets. Early in the week, rapidly changing conditions in Ukraine caused a great deal of movement in mortgage rates, but there was little net impact. Later in the week, stronger than expected labor market data was negative for mortgage rates, and rates ended the week higher.

Against a consensus forecast of 140K, the economy added 175K jobs in February, and the figures for the prior two months were revised a little higher. This took place, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, despite the largest weather related disruption since 1996. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose from 6.6% to 6.7%, but this was due to an increase in the number of people that entered the labor force. The solid jobs report exceeded expectations nearly across the board. Since stronger economic growth raises future inflationary pressures, this was unfavorable news for mortgage rates.

After Russia moved troops into Ukraine, the threat of an escalating conflict caused a “flight to safety” in financial markets on Monday. This involved a shift by investors to relatively safer assets, resulting in a large decline in stocks and significant improvement in bonds, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). A complete reversal took place on Tuesday, however, after the Russian President said that Russia would not use military force in Ukraine.

ALSO NOTABLE
ISM Services declined to the lowest level since February 2010
The Treasury will auction $64 billion in securities next week
The European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates
Chinese manufacturing data fell to the lowest level in 8 months

WEEK AHEAD
The most significant economic report next week will be the Retail Sales data on Thursday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Before that, the JOLTS report, measuring job openings and labor turnover, will come out on Tuesday. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Friday. Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment will round out the schedule. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Changes in the situation in Ukraine also could have an impact on mortgage rates.

it’s a little late…yet still on time! MORTGAGE TIME

February 25, 2014
MORTGAGE TIME
Mortgage Market News for the week of Feb. 21, 2014
Compliments of:

 

Patrick Gardner
Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS ID: 378888
415-423-1424
Email me
Visit my website

 


RATES HIGHER AFTER FED MINUTES
The positive momentum in mortgage rates shifted direction after the release of the Fed Minutes on Wednesday. Investors viewed the Minutes as somewhat positive for stocks and negative for bonds. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.

The Minutes from the January 29 Fed Meeting revealed that Fed officials remained very divided as to the appropriate path for future policy. Overall, though, the perception of investors was that the position of the hawks remained solid, while the views of the doves may have weakened a little. As a reminder, “hawks” tend to favor less stimulus to help keep inflation low, while “doves” prefer more stimulus to boost economic growth. The Minutes stated that “a few participants” considered the possibility that it “might be appropriate” to raise the fed funds rate sooner than many expect. The Minutes also reinforced Fed Chair Yellen’s recent comments that there is a high hurdle for the Fed to pause in reducing its bond purchase program. The Fed’s bond purchases have helped keep mortgage rates low, and the Minutes reduced the likelihood that the program could be stretched out for a longer period of time.

The economic data released this week continued to be affected by the unusually severe weather this winter. In particular, the housing reports all fell short of expectations. January Existing Home Sales declined 5% from December to the lowest level since July 2012. They were 15% below the peak levels seen last summer. On the plus side, total housing inventory available for sale increased. The results for January Housing Starts fell even farther below expectations with a decline of 16% from December. Building Permits declined as well. Finally, the February NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market index showed that builder confidence dropped sharply. Both the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) attributed the weakness in recent data to a combination of bad weather, limited supply, and tight credit conditions.

ALSO NOTABLE
Core CPI inflation was just 1.6% higher than one year ago
The Philly Fed index dropped to the lowest level since February 2013
The Treasury will auction $96 billion in securities next week
Chinese PMI manufacturing data was weaker than expected

 

WEEK AHEAD
Next week, New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, will come out on Thursday. Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI Manufacturing, and revisions to fourth quarter GDP will be released on Friday. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment will round out the schedule. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Your Weekly Mortgage Time is Here…Late, but here Nonetheless

January 20, 2014
MORTGAGE TIME
Mortgage Market News for the week of Jan. 17, 2014
Compliments of:
Patrick Gardner
Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS ID: 378888
415-423-1424
Email me
Visit my website

INFLATION REMAINS TAME
Mortgage rates began the week with downward momentum following last Friday’s big miss on the Employment report. That, combined with low inflation, more than offset this week’s slightly stronger than expected economic growth data, and mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.

With the Fed’s recent decision to reduce its bond purchases, investors were left evaluating what they believed to be the appropriate level of mortgage rates for the current economic environment. In short, moderate economic growth and low inflation represent relatively favorable conditions for mortgage rates. This week, the December Retail Sales report revealed gains consistent with moderate growth. Since Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity, investors pay close attention to this data. Two of the more significant monthly inflation reports also were released this week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), and both confirmed that inflation remains tame. Core CPI was just 1.7% higher than one year ago, well below the Fed’s target level of 2.0%, while Core PPI was even lower at 1.4% on an annual basis.

JOLTS, another report released this week, is quickly gaining prominence with investors because it is considered to be a favorite of incoming Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The JOLTS survey measures Job Openings and Labor Turnover levels, providing another level of insight into labor market conditions. Since the Unemployment Rate has been heavily influenced recently by people leaving the labor force rather than by job gains, investors and Fed officials are eager for additional details to judge the strength of the labor market. The November JOLTS data showed that Job Openings unexpectedly rose to the highest level since March 2008. The percentage of people quitting their jobs was nearly unchanged.

ALSO NOTABLE
The Empire State index rose to the highest level since May 2012
Capacity Utilization increased to the highest level since May 2008
The Fed’s Beige Book reported moderate economic growth
Unemployment in the euro zone remained at a record high 12.1%

WEEK AHEAD
The Economic Calendar will be nearly empty next week. Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday in Observance of MLK Day.